What we are witnessing is indeed a flying start, but not necessarily the one the Hungarian government anticipated. The United States has placed Antal Rogán, the minister heading the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office, on its sanctions list. Under the Sergei Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act and the corresponding presidential decree, Rogán was placed on a list that includes hundreds of individuals accused of human rights violations and corruption. Those affected:
cannot enter the United States,
have their assets in the country seized,
and anyone who does business or cooperates with them might face similar sanctions.
Of these three consequences, the last is the least specific but is potentially the greatest threat. U.S.-imposed sanctions are theoretically not global, but in practice, the risk of being excluded from the international financial system by the U.S. can have a deterrent effect so strong that even the bank managing the sanctioned individual’s account may refuse to cooperate.
There has long been a rumour that America might sanction Hungarian citizens. Five years ago, the Wall Street Journal mentioned István Tiborcz and Lőrinc Mészáros besides Rogán as possible targets for the sanctions. It would have been clear in their case, as it is in Rogán’s, that they represent the Prime Minister without Viktor Orbán himself being sanctioned.
Szajki Bálint / 24.hu
Imposing sanctions under an administration respecting rule of law is a particularly lengthy process. Many on the government side blame David Pressman, the U.S. ambassador to Budapest, for petty revenge regarding these sanctions. However, Pressman is neither politically nor diplomatically acting on his own. Every ambassador carries out assignments. If Pressman is acting aggressively toward the Hungarian government, it is not his own idea but a task assigned by his superiors: Secretary of State Antony Blinken or U.S. President Joe Biden, which he must execute to the best of his ability. U.S. foreign policy is conducted by the president and the secretary of state; diplomats representing the U.S. act based on their guidance. The Hungarian government is undoubtedly aware of this, and the communication against Pressman is more political damage control.
In reality, Pressman could not impose such sanctions. These sanctions are imposed by the President of the United States after consulting the secretary of state, the secretary of the treasury, and the attorney general. If we are determined to view the sanctions against Rogán as personal revenge, they can be seen much more as the revenge of Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, Merrick Garland, or more so the outgoing Joe Biden. However, in international politics, revenge is naturally difficult to interpret.
There may be two possible reasons behind the situation:
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