{"id":155891,"date":"2026-01-02T06:32:36","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T06:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/sarlatansag-nelkul-belelapoztunk-a-magyar-es-a-globalis-gazdasag-2026-os-forgatokonyveibe\/friss-hirek\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T06:32:36","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T06:32:36","slug":"sarlatansag-nelkul-belelapoztunk-a-magyar-es-a-globalis-gazdasag-2026-os-forgatokonyveibe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/sarlatansag-nelkul-belelapoztunk-a-magyar-es-a-globalis-gazdasag-2026-os-forgatokonyveibe\/friss-hirek\/","title":{"rendered":"Sarlat\u00e1ns\u00e1g n\u00e9lk\u00fcl \u2013 belelapoztunk a magyar \u00e9s a glob\u00e1lis gazdas\u00e1g 2026-os forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyveibe"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"_ce_measure_widget\" data-ce-measure-widget=\"Id\u00e9zet\">\n<p>Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t senki nem tudja el\u0151re megj\u00f3solni, nincs, akinek megb\u00edzhat\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se lenne<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u2013 mondta lapunknak <strong>Pog\u00e1tsa Zolt\u00e1n<\/strong> k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1sz, a Soproni Egyetem docense, amikor a 2026-ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi makromutat\u00f3kr\u00f3l k\u00e9rdezt\u00fck. Szerinte sarlat\u00e1n, aki arra v\u00e1llalkozik, hogy megmondja, mik\u00e9nt alakulnak az \u00e1rak a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vben. M\u00e9g arr\u00f3l sincs fogalmunk, hogy az elm\u00falt h\u00e1rom \u00e9vben mi\u00e9rt Magyarorsz\u00e1gon volt a legmagasabb az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az eg\u00e9sz Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3ban.<\/p><div id=\"friss-815338396\" class=\"friss-etarget friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201e2025-ben szinte minden h\u00f3nap pozit\u00edv vagy negat\u00edv meglepet\u00e9st hozott\u201d \u2013 jegyezte meg. Ennek oka az, hogy ezeket az adatokat a k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok m\u00e1r nem tudj\u00e1k el\u0151re kalkul\u00e1lni, mert Magyarorsz\u00e1gon nem a piac, hanem az \u00e1llami beavatkoz\u00e1sok (\u00e1rstop, \u00e1rr\u00e9stop, kamatstopok, \u00e1llamilag t\u00e1mogatott hitelek) befoly\u00e1solj\u00e1k a folyamatokat.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article_box_border _ce_measure_widget\" data-ce-measure-widget=\"Keretes megjelen\u00e9s\">\n<div class=\"article_solidheader\">\n<h2>Kock\u00e1zat \u00e9s bizonytalans\u00e1g az MNB infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben is<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>A Magyar Nemzeti Bank decemberi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mnb.hu\/letoltes\/hun-ir-digitalis-31.pdf\">infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9nek<\/a> meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sa, hogy a \u201em\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt glob\u00e1lis n\u00f6veked\u00e9s mellett az elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 kereskedelmi \u00e9s geopolitikai fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gek tov\u00e1bbra is kock\u00e1zatot jelentenek.\u201d A Monet\u00e1ris Tan\u00e1cs szerint az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 novemberben visszat\u00e9rt a jegybanki 2\u20134 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos tolerancias\u00e1vba (3,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot tett ki). A 2026-os \u00e9v eleji v\u00e1llalati \u00e1t\u00e1raz\u00e1sok alakul\u00e1sa, valamint az \u00e1rr\u00e9skorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok kivezet\u00e9s\u00e9nek id\u0151z\u00edt\u00e9se \u00e9s hat\u00e1sa ugyanakkor \u201ebizonytalans\u00e1got hordoz az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokra n\u00e9zve.\u201d Az \u00e1remelked\u00e9s \u00fcteme 2026 elej\u00e9n ideiglenesen a 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9l al\u00e1 m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dik, majd \u00e1tmenetileg a tolerancias\u00e1v fels\u0151 sz\u00e9le k\u00f6zel\u00e9be n\u0151. Az MNB-progn\u00f3zis szerint 2026-ban 3,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcl alakul az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, a 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos jegybanki c\u00e9l csak \u201e2027 m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben \u00e9rhet\u0151 el fenntarthat\u00f3an.\u201d \u00c9rdekes, hogy Nagy M\u00e1rton szerint magasabb szintet, 3,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot \u00e9rhet el az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az id\u00e9n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Pog\u00e1tsa szerint a p\u00e9nzk\u00edn\u00e1latot sem csup\u00e1n az MNB szab\u00e1lyozza, mivel a magyar korm\u00e1ny t\u00e1mogatott hiteleket ad lak\u00e1sv\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1sra vagy kisv\u00e1llalkoz\u00f3knak fejleszt\u00e9sekre. \u00cdgy a jegybanki alapkamat sem szab\u00e1lyozza \u00fagy a folyamatokat, ahogyan piacgazdas\u00e1gokban szok\u00e1s. Azaz az \u00e1rak r\u00e9szben \u00e1llamilag szab\u00e1lyozottak, \u00e9s a c\u00e9ges, illetve mag\u00e1nhitelez\u00e9s is r\u00e9szben \u00e1llami ir\u00e1ny\u00edt\u00e1s al\u00e1 ker\u00fclt, vagyis hi\u00e1ba is pr\u00f3b\u00e1ln\u00e1nak k\u00e9pletekkel dolgozni a szak\u00e9rt\u0151k,<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"highlight-block-small _ce_measure_widget\" data-ce-measure-widget=\"Kiemel\u00e9s - hossz\u00fa sz\u00f6veghez\">az \u00e1llami akaraton alapul\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gpolitika \u2013 az \u00e1llamszocializmus idej\u00e9n ezt voluntarizmusnak h\u00edvt\u00e1k \u2013 b\u00e1rmikor b\u00e1rmit fel\u00fcl\u00edrhat a hazai gazdas\u00e1gi folyamatokban.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Az abszurd helyzetet mutatja Pog\u00e1tsa szerint az is, hogy mik\u00f6zben gyakorlatilag nincs gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s Magyarorsz\u00e1gon, a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9g nem emelkedik jelent\u0151sen, ami egy piacgazdas\u00e1gban szokatlan.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"_ce_measure_widget\" data-ce-measure-widget=\"Id\u00e9zet\">\n<p>K\u00e9pesek vagyunk \u00fagy stagn\u00e1lni, hogy k\u00f6zben szinte teljes a foglalkoztat\u00e1s<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/fn\/gazdasag\/2026\/01\/02\/vilaggazdasag-2026-forgatokonyvek-mi-allamadossag-pogatsa-loncsak\/\" target=\"_blank\">Sarlat\u00e1ns\u00e1g n\u00e9lk\u00fcl \u2013 belelapoztunk a magyar \u00e9s a glob\u00e1lis gazdas\u00e1g 2026-os forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyveibe<\/a> first appeared on <a href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/\" target=\"_blank\">24.hu<\/a>.<\/p><div id=\"friss-638505896\" class=\"friss-etarget-cikk-vege friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var 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id=\"friss-941794505\" class=\"friss-after-content_3 friss-entity-placement\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pdnw4KiUWp0<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t senki nem tudja el\u0151re megj\u00f3solni, nincs, akinek megb\u00edzhat\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se lenne \u2013 mondta lapunknak Pog\u00e1tsa Zolt\u00e1n k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1sz, a Soproni Egyetem docense, amikor a 2026-ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi makromutat\u00f3kr\u00f3l k\u00e9rdezt\u00fck. Szerinte sarlat\u00e1n, aki arra v\u00e1llalkozik, hogy megmondja, mik\u00e9nt alakulnak az \u00e1rak a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vben. M\u00e9g arr\u00f3l sincs fogalmunk, hogy az elm\u00falt h\u00e1rom \u00e9vben mi\u00e9rt Magyarorsz\u00e1gon volt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-friss-hirek"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155891\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}