{"id":156102,"date":"2026-01-04T06:07:21","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T06:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/washington-uzent-az-olaj-nem-csak-piac-hanem-fegyver\/friss-hirek\/"},"modified":"2026-01-04T06:07:21","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T06:07:21","slug":"washington-uzent-az-olaj-nem-csak-piac-hanem-fegyver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/washington-uzent-az-olaj-nem-csak-piac-hanem-fegyver\/uzlet\/","title":{"rendered":"Washington \u00fczent: az olaj nem csak piac, hanem fegyver"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Maduro mellett van m\u00e9g egy vesztese Trump venezuelai katonai beavatkoz\u00e1s\u00e1nak: K\u00edna. <\/strong><\/p><div id=\"friss-2777558362\" class=\"friss-etarget friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u00edna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/hirek\/trump-venezuela-sajtotajekoztato-olaj-iranyitas\/\">a venezuelai esem\u00e9nyek <\/a>nem \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos olajpiaci sokkot, hanem egy nehezen kezelhet\u0151 ell\u00e1t\u00e1si \u00e9s strat\u00e9giai v\u00e1ls\u00e1got jelentenek. B\u00e1r Venezuela a glob\u00e1lis olajfogyaszt\u00e1s kevesebb mint 1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t adja jelenleg, Peking szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l kulcsszerepl\u0151: a k\u00ednai import d\u00f6nt\u0151 r\u00e9sze olyan neh\u00e9z, magas k\u00e9ntartalm\u00fa nyersolaj, amelyre sz\u00e1mos k\u00ednai finom\u00edt\u00f3 \u2013 k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen Santung tartom\u00e1nyban \u2013 technol\u00f3giailag optimaliz\u00e1lva van. Ezek a kapacit\u00e1sok nem tudnak gyorsan vagy k\u00f6lts\u00e9ghat\u00e9konyan \u00e1t\u00e1llni m\u00e1s, k\u00f6nnyebb olajmin\u0151s\u00e9gekre.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A kock\u00e1zat h\u00e1rom szintje, amivel Pekingnek sz\u00e1molnia kell<\/h2>\n<p>A kock\u00e1zat els\u0151 szintje p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi. K\u00edna \u00e1llami bankjai \u2013 mindenekel\u0151tt a China Development Bank \u2013 a 2000-es \u00e9vek v\u00e9ge \u00f3ta olaj\u00e9rt cser\u00e9be ny\u00fajtott hitelekkel finansz\u00edrozt\u00e1k Venezuel\u00e1t, amelyekb\u0151l becsl\u00e9sek szerint 17\u201319 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rnyi kintl\u00e9v\u0151s\u00e9g maradt fenn. Ez Peking egyik legnagyobb, \u00e1rualap\u00fa, egyetlen orsz\u00e1gra koncentr\u00e1lt k\u00f6vetel\u00e9se, amelynek megt\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9se most politikai \u00e9s katonai bizonytalans\u00e1g al\u00e1 ker\u00fclt.<\/p>\n<p>A m\u00e1sodik szint az operat\u00edv sokk. A k\u00ednai f\u00fcggetlen finom\u00edt\u00f3k az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben kifejezetten a venezuelai Merey 16 t\u00edpus\u00fa olajra \u00e9p\u00edtett\u00e9k kokszol\u00f3 kapacit\u00e1saikat, amelyet m\u00e9ly diszkonttal tudtak beszerezni a nyugati szankci\u00f3k miatt. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Ha ezek a hord\u00f3k elt\u0171nnek, a p\u00f3tl\u00e1s csak dr\u00e1g\u00e1bb k\u00f6zel-keleti vagy orosz alternat\u00edv\u00e1kkal lehets\u00e9ges, rosszabb finom\u00edt\u00f3i hozammal \u00e9s sz\u0171k\u00fcl\u0151 \u00e1rr\u00e9ssel.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>A harmadik \u2013 \u00e9s Peking sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra tal\u00e1n legaggaszt\u00f3bb \u2013 dimenzi\u00f3 strat\u00e9giai. Washington a venezuelai m\u0171velettel azt \u00fczente, hogy k\u00e9sz katonai er\u0151t alkalmazni olyan nyersanyag-ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok megszak\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ra, amelyek K\u00edna gazdas\u00e1gi biztons\u00e1ga szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l kritikusak. Ezt er\u0151s\u00edti, hogy az amerikai p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyminiszt\u00e9rium enged\u00e9ly\u00e9vel a Chevron tov\u00e1bbra is export\u00e1lhat venezuelai olajat az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokba, vagyis <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>minden amerikai ir\u00e1nyba elmen\u0151 hord\u00f3 k\u00f6zvetlen hi\u00e1nyk\u00e9nt jelenik meg a k\u00ednai piacon.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>K\u00edna nem egy klasszikus olaj\u00e1r-robban\u00e1ssal n\u00e9z szembe, hanem  azzal a helyzettel, hogy a finom\u00edt\u00f3i rendszer technol\u00f3giai k\u00f6t\u00f6tts\u00e9gei miatt nem az \u00e1r, hanem a megfelel\u0151 min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 nyersanyag v\u00e1lik sz\u0171k keresztmetszett\u00e9. Ez a sokk kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 l\u00e1tv\u00e1nyos, de hosszabb t\u00e1von komoly versenyh\u00e1tr\u00e1nyt okozhat a k\u00ednai feldolgoz\u00f3iparnak.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mit hozhat a j\u00f6v\u0151?<\/h2>\n<p>A venezuelai helyzet rendez\u00e9se K\u00edna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra nem bin\u00e1ris kimenetel\u0171, hanem h\u00e1rom, elt\u00e9r\u0151 kock\u00e1zat\u00fa p\u00e1lya ment\u00e9n k\u00e9pzelhet\u0151 el \u2013 \u00edrja az amerikai <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/guneyyildiz\/2026\/01\/03\/maduro-venezuela-the-us-and-the-oil-shock-china-cant-price-in\/\">Forbes<\/a>. A legval\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171bb forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv a <strong>pragmatikus alku<\/strong>: Peking csendben alkalmazkodik az \u00faj politikai realit\u00e1shoz, \u00e9s elfogadja, hogy a China Development Bank olaj\u00e9rt adott hiteleinek csak 40\u201350 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka t\u00e9r\u00fcl meg. A vesztes\u00e9g f\u00e1jdalmas, de kezelhet\u0151, mik\u00f6zben K\u00edna alternat\u00edv \u2013 kanadai, iraki \u2013 neh\u00e9zolajforr\u00e1sokkal pr\u00f3b\u00e1lja stabiliz\u00e1lni finom\u00edt\u00f3i ell\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<p>Egy kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 kedvez\u0151 p\u00e1lya az <strong>elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 patthelyzet<\/strong>, amelyben K\u00edna nem ismeri el az \u00faj venezuelai vezet\u00e9st, a f\u00fcggetlen finom\u00edt\u00f3k pedig tov\u00e1bb pr\u00f3b\u00e1lkoznak a szankci\u00f3kat megker\u00fcl\u0151 beszerz\u00e9sekkel. Ebben az esetben az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok m\u00e1sodlagos szankci\u00f3i a banki elsz\u00e1mol\u00e1sokon kereszt\u00fcl 6\u20139 h\u00f3napon bel\u00fcl fel\u0151r\u00f6lhetik a k\u00ednai finom\u00edt\u00f3k \u00e1rr\u00e9seit, \u00e9s p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi-ipari sokkot okozhatnak.<\/p>\n<p>A legrosszabb kimenetel egy <strong>venezuela-i \u00e1llamkudarc<\/strong>, amelyben a politikai \u00e1tmenet \u00f6sszeomlik, az olajtermel\u00e9s 600 ezer hord\u00f3\/nap al\u00e1 esik, \u00e9s a neh\u00e9z, magas k\u00e9ntartalm\u00fa venezuelai olaj \u00e9vekre kiesik a glob\u00e1lis piacr\u00f3l. Ebben a forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvben K\u00edna l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben elvesz\u00edti p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi k\u00f6vetel\u00e9seit, mik\u00f6zben az amerikai rekonstrukci\u00f3s k\u00eds\u00e9rletek sem hoznak gyors eredm\u00e9nyt.<\/p>\n<p>A legval\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171bb \u00fat jelenleg a csendes kompromisszum, de mindh\u00e1rom szcen\u00e1ri\u00f3 azt \u00fczeni: K\u00edna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra ez nem keresked\u00e9si vesztes\u00e9g, hanem strat\u00e9giai le\u00edr\u00e1s lehet \u2013 azaz annak felismer\u00e9se, hogy az \u00e1rualap\u00fa hitelez\u00e9s \u00e9s a szankci\u00f3s arbitr\u00e1zs egy geopolitikai fordulatn\u00e1l gyorsan el\u00e9rt\u00e9ktelenedhet.<\/p>\n<p><!-- No email blocks found --><\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/penz\/kina-maduro-venezuela-trump-geopolitika\/\">Washington \u00fczent: az olaj nem csak piac, hanem fegyver<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/\">Forbes.hu<\/a>.<\/p><div id=\"friss-1910170452\" class=\"friss-etarget-cikk-vege 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id=\"friss-2723917625\" class=\"friss-after-content_3 friss-entity-placement\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pdnw4KiUWp0<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Maduro mellett van m\u00e9g egy vesztese Trump venezuelai katonai beavatkoz\u00e1s\u00e1nak: K\u00edna. K\u00edna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra a venezuelai esem\u00e9nyek nem \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos olajpiaci sokkot, hanem egy nehezen kezelhet\u0151 ell\u00e1t\u00e1si \u00e9s strat\u00e9giai v\u00e1ls\u00e1got jelentenek. B\u00e1r Venezuela a glob\u00e1lis olajfogyaszt\u00e1s kevesebb mint 1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t adja jelenleg, Peking szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l kulcsszerepl\u0151: a k\u00ednai import d\u00f6nt\u0151 r\u00e9sze olyan neh\u00e9z, magas k\u00e9ntartalm\u00fa nyersolaj, amelyre sz\u00e1mos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-156102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uzlet"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=156102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=156102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=156102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=156102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}