{"id":164368,"date":"2026-03-19T10:34:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T10:34:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/pletser-az-irani-haborurol-komoly-eselyt-latok-egy-elhuzodo-konfliktusra-a-helyzet-csak-2028-tol-enyhulhet-az-olajpiacon\/friss-hirek\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T10:34:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T10:34:44","slug":"pletser-az-irani-haborurol-komoly-eselyt-latok-egy-elhuzodo-konfliktusra-a-helyzet-csak-2028-tol-enyhulhet-az-olajpiacon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/pletser-az-irani-haborurol-komoly-eselyt-latok-egy-elhuzodo-konfliktusra-a-helyzet-csak-2028-tol-enyhulhet-az-olajpiacon\/uzlet\/","title":{"rendered":"Pletser az ir\u00e1ni h\u00e1bor\u00far\u00f3l: Komoly es\u00e9lyt l\u00e1tok egy elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 konfliktusra, a helyzet csak 2028-t\u00f3l enyh\u00fclhet az olajpiacon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Az Erste olaj- \u00e9s g\u00e1zipari elemz\u0151je szerint nem indokolt a t\u00falzott nyugalom az olajpiacon, elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fara sz\u00e1m\u00edt Ir\u00e1nban, ami m\u00e9g j\u00f6v\u0151re is magas \u00e1rakat hozhat.<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"friss-4019567821\" class=\"friss-etarget friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt?<\/strong> A hat\u00e1rid\u0151s olajpiaci \u00e1rak az mutatj\u00e1k, hogy az Ir\u00e1n elleni h\u00e1bor\u00fa relat\u00edve gyors lez\u00e1r\u00e1sa fog k\u00f6vetkezni, pedig nem indokolt a t\u00falzott nyugalom \u2013 \u00edrta cs\u00fct\u00f6rt\u00f6k d\u00e9lel\u0151tti <a href=\"https:\/\/www.erstemarket.hu\/tartalom\/233680\/nem-indokolt-a-tulzott-nyugalom-az-olajpiacon-20260319\">elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben<\/a> Pletser Tam\u00e1s, az Erste olaj- \u00e9s g\u00e1zipari elemz\u0151je.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-post-links\">\n<p>\t\t<span class=\"related-post-links__title minititle\">T\u00f6bb ebb\u0151l<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-post-links__link-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/penz\/forbes-money-podcast-makro-magyar-gazdasag\/\" class=\"related-post-links__link\">Annyi es\u00e9lye van teljesen talpra \u00e1llni a magyar gazdas\u00e1gnak 2026-ban, mint t\u00f6bbsz\u00f6r megnyerni az \u00f6t\u00f6st a lott\u00f3n<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Mi\u00e9rt fontos ez?<\/strong> Pletser azzal kezdi, hogy a Brent t\u00edpus\u00fa k\u0151olaj cs\u00fct\u00f6rt\u00f6k reggeli jegyz\u00e9se 112,3 doll\u00e1ron forgott azonnali lesz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sra. \u201eEzzel szemben augusztus v\u00e9g\u00e9re 97,3 doll\u00e1r alatti szinteket \u00e1raz a piac, 2027 \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re pedig 77,5 doll\u00e1rig s\u00fcllyedhet az \u00e1r. A k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy indokolt-e ez a fajta optimizmus?\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mit jelent ez a gyakorlatban?<\/strong> \u201eSajnos azt l\u00e1tom, hogy b\u0151ven van felfel\u00e9 mutat\u00f3 kock\u00e1zat \u2013 folytatja. \u2013 Nagyon val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171, hogy az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok \u00e9s Izrael beleragadhat egy elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00faba Ir\u00e1nnal szemben.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Az ir\u00e1ni teokr\u00e1ci\u00e1t nem lehet csak l\u00e9gi eszk\u00f6z\u00f6kkel megbuktatni, s\u0151t, paradox m\u00f3don az \u00e9ppen gyeng\u00fcl\u0151 rezsimet ez a h\u00e1bor\u00fa m\u00e9g meg is er\u0151s\u00edtette.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Kontextus.<\/strong> \u201eIr\u00e1n c\u00e9lja a magas olaj\u00e1r a konfliktus fennmarad\u00e1s\u00e1nak v\u00e9g\u00e9ig \u00e9s a szomsz\u00e9dos \u00f6b\u00f6l-menti arab orsz\u00e1gok ellehetetlen\u00edt\u00e9se \u2013 fejti ki Pletser. \u2013 Ez pedig sajnos magas \u00e1rakat jelenthet 2026-ban biztosan, de ak\u00e1r 2027-ben is.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Az elemz\u0151 szerint \u201ea piac legk\u00e9s\u0151bb 2-3 \u00e9ven bel\u00fcl megtal\u00e1lja a megold\u00e1st \u2013 \u00e9p\u00fcl majd \u00faj elker\u00fcl\u0151 olajvezet\u00e9k a V\u00f6r\u00f6s-tenger ir\u00e1ny\u00e1ba, lesznek majd jobb \u00e9s olcs\u00f3bb l\u00e9gv\u00e9delemi eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k dr\u00f3nok \u00e9s ballisztikus rak\u00e9t\u00e1k ellen, illetve a sz\u00f6vets\u00e9gesek folyamatosan megsemmis\u00edt\u0151 t\u00e1mad\u00e1sokat ind\u00edtanak ir\u00e1ni c\u00e9lpontok ellen.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Ami a Hormuzi-szorost illeti, Pletser val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171nek tartja, hogy \u201evalamif\u00e9le megold\u00e1st lehet tal\u00e1lni\u201d a szoros forgalm\u00e1ra is, \u201eha m\u00e1sk\u00e9nt nem, h\u00e1t nagyon magas biztos\u00edt\u00e1si \u00e9s fuvaroz\u00e1si d\u00edjak mellett, \u00e1lland\u00f3 fesz\u00fclts\u00e9g k\u00f6zepette. De ha Donald Trump nem l\u00e9p vissza, nem hagy teret az ir\u00e1ni rezsimnek, akkor aligha lesz tart\u00f3s t\u0171zsz\u00fcnet.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Hogyan tov\u00e1bb?<\/strong> Pletser szerint \u201esz\u00e1razf\u00f6ldi csapatok bevet\u00e9se Ir\u00e1nnal szemben \u00f3ri\u00e1si kock\u00e1zat Donald Trump sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, akinek szem\u00e9lyis\u00e9ge szint\u00e9n nem t\u0171ri a kompromisszumot. Emiatt \u00e9n komoly es\u00e9lyt l\u00e1tok egy hosszan elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 konfliktusra, ahol a glob\u00e1lis olaj\u00e1rakra r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von sokkal ink\u00e1bb az ir\u00e1ni rezsimnek lesz hat\u00e1sa, mint az amerikai eln\u00f6knek.\u201d Elemz\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00fagy z\u00e1rja: \u201e\u00e9n ink\u00e1bb 100 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6r\u00fcli vagy feletti Brent \u00e1tlag\u00e1rat l\u00e1tok id\u00e9n \u00e9s tal\u00e1n j\u00f6v\u0151re is.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>A helyzet 2028-t\u00f3l enyh\u00fclhet, akkor t\u00e9rhet\u00fcnk vissza egy norm\u00e1lisabbnak tekinthet\u0151 80 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6r\u00fcl \u00e1rszintre.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><!-- No email blocks found --><\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/penz\/elemzo-az-irani-haborurol-komoly-eselyt-latok-egy-elhuzodo-konfliktusra-a-helyzet-csak-2028-tol-enyhulhet-az-olajpiacon\/\">Pletser az ir\u00e1ni h\u00e1bor\u00far\u00f3l: Komoly es\u00e9lyt l\u00e1tok egy elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 konfliktusra, a helyzet csak 2028-t\u00f3l enyh\u00fclhet az olajpiacon<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/\">Forbes.hu<\/a>.<\/p><div id=\"friss-1120283073\" class=\"friss-etarget-cikk-vege friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return 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id=\"friss-1409910001\" class=\"friss-after-content_3 friss-entity-placement\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pdnw4KiUWp0<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az Erste olaj- \u00e9s g\u00e1zipari elemz\u0151je szerint nem indokolt a t\u00falzott nyugalom az olajpiacon, elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fara sz\u00e1m\u00edt Ir\u00e1nban, ami m\u00e9g j\u00f6v\u0151re is magas \u00e1rakat hozhat. Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt? A hat\u00e1rid\u0151s olajpiaci \u00e1rak az mutatj\u00e1k, hogy az Ir\u00e1n elleni h\u00e1bor\u00fa relat\u00edve gyors lez\u00e1r\u00e1sa fog k\u00f6vetkezni, pedig nem indokolt a t\u00falzott nyugalom \u2013 \u00edrta cs\u00fct\u00f6rt\u00f6k d\u00e9lel\u0151tti elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben Pletser [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uzlet"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=164368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=164368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=164368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=164368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}