{"id":166357,"date":"2026-05-05T08:44:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T08:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/gki-a-kedvezotlen-demografiai-mutatok-tovabbi-gazdasagi-nehezsegeket-vetitenek-elore\/friss-hirek\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T08:44:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T08:44:33","slug":"gki-a-kedvezotlen-demografiai-mutatok-tovabbi-gazdasagi-nehezsegeket-vetitenek-elore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/gki-a-kedvezotlen-demografiai-mutatok-tovabbi-gazdasagi-nehezsegeket-vetitenek-elore\/uzlet\/","title":{"rendered":"GKI: a kedvez\u0151tlen demogr\u00e1fiai mutat\u00f3k tov\u00e1bbi gazdas\u00e1gi neh\u00e9zs\u00e9geket vet\u00edtenek el\u0151re"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si bev\u00e9telek a foglalkoztat\u00e1shoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 ad\u00f3k \u00e9s j\u00e1rul\u00e9kok m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9se \u00e9s az \u00e1fabev\u00e9telek visszaes\u00e9se miatt \u00f6sszesen 680 milli\u00e1rd Ft-tal cs\u00f6kkennek 2026-2030 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt mai \u00e1rakon. <\/strong><\/p><div id=\"friss-1544585435\" class=\"friss-etarget friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt? <\/strong>A GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. cikksorozat\u00e1ban az \u00faj magyar korm\u00e1ny el\u0151tt \u00e1ll\u00f3 r\u00f6vid- \u00e9s hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa gazdas\u00e1gi kih\u00edv\u00e1sokat mutatja be. Cikksorozatuk Forbes.hu-nak is eljuttatott els\u0151 r\u00e9sz\u00e9ben Magyarorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9pess\u00e9gcs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9vel foglalkoznak. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Kontextus. <\/strong>A n\u00e9pess\u00e9g sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak alakul\u00e1sa gazdas\u00e1gi szempontb\u00f3l l\u00e9tfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa, mivel meghat\u00e1rozza a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1m\u00e1t, az ad\u00f3bev\u00e9telek nagys\u00e1g\u00e1t, a nyugd\u00edjkiad\u00e1sok \u00f6sszeg\u00e9t \u00e9s p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi kiad\u00e1sok j\u00f6v\u0151beli alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t is. Egy n\u0151 \u00e9lete sor\u00e1n \u00e1tlagosan 1,3 gyereket sz\u00fcl haz\u00e1nkban, ami jobbnak sz\u00e1m\u00edt, mint a V3-as orsz\u00e1gok (Szlov\u00e1kia, Csehorsz\u00e1g, Lengyelorsz\u00e1g) \u00e1tlaga, de \u00edgy is jelent\u0151sen elmarad a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g fenntart\u00e1shoz sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges 2,1-es \u00e9rt\u00e9kt\u0151l. Emiatt Magyarorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge \u00e9vr\u0151l \u00e9vre cs\u00f6kken, s az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben az \u00fajsz\u00fcl\u00f6ttek ar\u00e1nya is cs\u00f6kkenni kezdett a teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9gen bel\u00fcl. A folyamat 4-5 \u00e9vvel k\u00e9s\u0151bb kezd\u0151d\u00f6tt el n\u00e1lunk, mint a V3-ak eset\u00e9ben, \u00e9s a n\u00e9pess\u00e9gcs\u00f6kken\u00e9s, az el\u00f6reged\u00e9s felgyorsul\u00e1s\u00e1t jelzi. Haz\u00e1nkban kiemelked\u0151en magas \u00f6reged\u00e9si index (147), amely a 100 f\u0151 14 \u00e9v alattira jut\u00f3 65 \u00e9vn\u00e9l id\u0151sebbek sz\u00e1m\u00e1t mutatja.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mi\u00e9rt fontos ez? <\/strong>A KSH adatai szerint n\u00e9pess\u00e9gfogy\u00e1ssal egy\u00fctt a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1ma is cs\u00f6kken: 2026 els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben 65 ezer f\u0151vel elmaradt az el\u0151z\u0151 \u00e9v azonos id\u0151szak\u00e1hoz k\u00e9pest. V\u00e1rakoz\u00e1saink szerint a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1ma 2030-ra 4 milli\u00f3 388 ezer f\u0151re (-5,2%) esik vissza 2025-h\u00f6z k\u00e9pest demogr\u00e1fiai okokb\u00f3l. Mindez m\u00e1r r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von is alacsonyabb bev\u00e9telt \u00e9s jelent\u0151sen nagyobb kiad\u00e1st jelent a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9snek. M\u00edg a munkaer\u0151-k\u00edn\u00e1lat sz\u0171k\u00fcl\u00e9se er\u0151s\u00edti a munkav\u00e1llal\u00f3k alkupoz\u00edci\u00f3j\u00e1t \u00e9s \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edti a b\u00e9rn\u00f6veked\u00e9st, addig a v\u00e1llalatok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra ez jelent\u0151s k\u00f6lts\u00e9gnyom\u00e1st \u00e9s toborz\u00e1si neh\u00e9zs\u00e9get jelent. Ezzel szemben a mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia \u00e9s az automatiz\u00e1ci\u00f3 t\u00e9rnyer\u00e9se \u00e9ppen ellent\u00e9tes ir\u00e1ny\u00fa folyamatokat ind\u00edt el, ugyanakkor e k\u00e9t ellent\u00e9tes hat\u00e1s v\u00e9gs\u0151 ered\u0151je \u00e9s pontos m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke egyel\u0151re bizonytalan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mi k\u00f6vetkezik ebb\u0151l? <\/strong>A k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si bev\u00e9telek <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>a foglalkoztat\u00e1shoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 ad\u00f3k \u00e9s j\u00e1rul\u00e9kok m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9se \u00e9s az \u00e1fabev\u00e9telek visszaes\u00e9se miatt \u00f6sszesen 680 milli\u00e1rd Ft-tal cs\u00f6kkennek 2026-2030 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt mai \u00e1rakon. Ugyanakkor a nyugd\u00edjkiad\u00e1sok emelkednek: v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 230 milli\u00e1rd forinttal t\u00f6bb lesz a nyugd\u00edjkifizet\u00e9s <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>a demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok miatt a mai rendszer alapj\u00e1n 2025-\u00f6s \u00e1rakon. Amennyiben tov\u00e1bbi j\u00f3l\u00e9ti int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek t\u00f6rt\u00e9nnek, \u00fagy a kiad\u00e1sok tov\u00e1bb emelkednek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mi j\u00f6n ezut\u00e1n? <\/strong>2010 \u00f3ta a bev\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s dinamik\u00e1ja folyamatosan ellens\u00falyozni tudta az elv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1st. Ennek eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3s m\u00e9rleg minden \u00e9vben pozit\u00edv volt, ami \u00e1tlagosan \u00e9vi k\u00f6zel 18 000 f\u0151s t\u00f6bbletet eredm\u00e9nyezett a n\u00e9pess\u00e9gben. Az elk\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben a nett\u00f3 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 n\u00e9pess\u00e9gn\u00f6vel\u0151 hat\u00e1sa cs\u00f6kkenhet, mivel a bev\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s nagyr\u00e9szt vend\u00e9gmunk\u00e1sokat jelent, akiknek sz\u00e1m\u00e1t az \u00faj korm\u00e1ny m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelni k\u00edv\u00e1nja. \u00a0A GKI szerint \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben a r\u00e9gi\u00f3s trendekkel \u00f6sszhangban haz\u00e1nkban sem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 fordulat a demogr\u00e1fiai folyamatokban; s\u0151t, a kedvez\u0151tlen mutat\u00f3k tov\u00e1bbi gazdas\u00e1gi neh\u00e9zs\u00e9geket vet\u00edtenek el\u0151re. Mivel e trendek r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von nem ford\u00edthat\u00f3k meg, a hangs\u00falyt a demogr\u00e1fiai hat\u00e1sok kezel\u00e9s\u00e9re \u00e9s az adapt\u00e1ci\u00f3ra \u00e9rdemes helyezni.<\/p>\n<p><!-- No email blocks found --><\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/uzlet\/gki-a-kedvezotlen-demografiai-mutatok-tovabbi-gazdasagi-nehezsegeket-vetitenek-elore\/\">GKI: a kedvez\u0151tlen demogr\u00e1fiai mutat\u00f3k tov\u00e1bbi gazdas\u00e1gi neh\u00e9zs\u00e9geket vet\u00edtenek el\u0151re<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.hu\/\">Forbes.hu<\/a>.<\/p><div id=\"friss-2007667828\" class=\"friss-etarget-cikk-vege friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div><div id=\"friss-4147897281\" class=\"friss-after-content friss-entity-placement\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\">function etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b(){var e=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",t=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",o=document.getElementById(e);if(o){for(var n=o.offsetTop,d=o.offsetLeft,r=o.offsetWidth,a=o.offsetHeight;o.offsetParent;)o=o.offsetParent,n+=o.offsetTop,d+=o.offsetLeft;var i=(n<=window.pageYOffset+window.innerHeight&&d<window.pageXOffset+window.innerWidth&&n+a>window.pageYOffset&&d+r>window.pageXOffset);if(i&&etargetAllowOtherCheck){allowed=!1;var c=document.createElement(\"script\");return c.src=\"\/\/hu.search.etargetnet.com\/generic\/uni.php?g=ref:58661,area:700x210\",void(document.getElementById(t)&&document.getElementById(e)&&(document.getElementById(t).parentNode.appendChild(c),document.getElementById(t).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(t)),document.getElementById(e).parentNode.removeChild(document.getElementById(e)),document.removeEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.removeEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b)))}}}var etargetDivID=\"etargetPostload7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetScriptID=\"etargetScript7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b\",etargetPostloadPoint=document.createElement(\"div\");etargetPostloadPoint.id=etargetDivID;var etargetCurScript=document.getElementById(etargetScriptID);etargetCurScript.parentNode.appendChild(etargetPostloadPoint),document.addEventListener(\"scroll\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"resize\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b),document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b);var etargetAllowOtherCheck=!0;if(typeof(\"forceRunPostload\")==\"string\"){etargetPostloadFunction7a9b589f63cb072bef80df221f46a22b()}<\/script><\/div><div id=\"friss-145798371\" class=\"friss-after-content_2 friss-entity-placement\" style=\"clear: both;\"><div class=\"wprss_ajax\" data-id=\"rssc2c77a6950\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-rss-retriever\/inc\/imgs\/ajax-loader.gif\" alt=\"Loading RSS Feed\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\"><\/div><\/div><br style=\"clear: both; display: block; float: none;\"\/><div id=\"friss-4093681063\" class=\"friss-after-content_3 friss-entity-placement\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pdnw4KiUWp0<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si bev\u00e9telek a foglalkoztat\u00e1shoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 ad\u00f3k \u00e9s j\u00e1rul\u00e9kok m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9se \u00e9s az \u00e1fabev\u00e9telek visszaes\u00e9se miatt \u00f6sszesen 680 milli\u00e1rd Ft-tal cs\u00f6kkennek 2026-2030 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt mai \u00e1rakon. Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt? A GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. cikksorozat\u00e1ban az \u00faj magyar korm\u00e1ny el\u0151tt \u00e1ll\u00f3 r\u00f6vid- \u00e9s hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa gazdas\u00e1gi kih\u00edv\u00e1sokat mutatja be. Cikksorozatuk Forbes.hu-nak is eljuttatott els\u0151 r\u00e9sz\u00e9ben Magyarorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9pess\u00e9gcs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9vel foglalkoznak. Kontextus. A [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-166357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uzlet"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=166357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166357\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=166357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=166357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/friss-hirek.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=166357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}